Statistics in Sports
Stat 116
Brad Hartlaub
Spring 2020
R links
Math Science Skills Center (Zoom sessions will replace the tutoring that was held in RBH 311.)
- Your lead tutor, Steve Kelly, will be available Sunday and Tuesday from 7:00 until 8:30 pm
Daily Agendas
- January 13
- January 15
- January 17
- January 20
- January 22
- January 24
- January 27
- January 29
- January 31 - Quiz #1 (covers Chapters 1-4)
- February 3 - Project #1
- February 5 - Lab time for project #1
- February 7 - Project Presentations
- Patrick Kawakami and Zane Monaghan - Drive for show, putt for dough
- Luke Thompson - The tale of two stadiums
- February 10 - Project Presentations
- Cora Cicala and Hayley Beluch - First serve statistics in tennis
- Liem Buckley - Investigation into one and done player development
- Nicholas Vale - Caeleb Dressel: Historic NCAA Performances
- Matt Pantalon, Aaron Lambert, Ryan Dillon- Premier League top scorers
- February 12 - Project Presentations
- Claire Murray and Kaitlyn Griffith - Gender differences in Olympic running times
- Vishad Onta - The impact of Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker on Liverpool's (ongoing) historic season
- James Mazer, Andrew Stolarski, Joesph Chatz - Let there be light
- Christopher Paludi and Oliver Pearson - 2017-2019 Dodgers: Cody Bellinger Batting Fourth
- February 14 - Project Presentations
- Garrett Culbertson - Lebron James in January
- Yuming Li - Damian Lillard's historic six game run and whether his personal performance contributes to team wins
- Jamie Sussman and Gene Bailey - NBA and globalization
- Alex Hoskins-Frame, Ryan Page, Jack Anderson - Finals appearances in professional sports
- February 17
- February 19
- February 21
- February 24 - RLAB on CIs
- February 26 - Guessing Correlations - App1, App2
- February 28 - Exam #1 (Covers Chapters 1 - 9; 2 sheets of 8.5"x11", access to R, access to course web page, and I write the R code)
- March 1 - March 22 - Extended spring break because of Coronavirus
- March 23
- March 25
- March 27
- March 30
- April 1
- Cora Cicala, Hayley Buluch, and Joseph Chatz - Regression models for surfing competitons
- April 3
- Liem Buckley and Garrett Culberston - NBA performance models
- April 6
- Pat Kawakami and Zane Monaghan - Predicting strokes gained off the tee on the PGA Tour
- Claire Murray and Kaitlyn Griffith - Predicting Olympic skaters' free skate scores
- Aaron Lambert, Ryan Dillon, and Matt Pantalon - Estimating Home Run Perfromance for MLB's Steroid Users
- April 8
- Yuming Li and Luke Thompson - Models for rock climbing grade
- Jack Anderson, Alex Hoskins-Frame, and Ryan Page - Predicting wins during an MLB season
- Discussion about remaining course content
- April 10
- Andrew Stolarski and Nick Vale - Home field advantage and winning percentage
- Oliver Pearson and Chris Paludi - Should NBAl teams prioritize offense or defense?
- Jamie Sussman, and Vishad Onta - Modeling rebounds, efficiency and minutes played using height and weight in the NBA
- April 13
- April 15
- James Mazer - Does the strongest rider always win?
- April 17 - The interesting links at the bottom of this web page have plenty of articles, but you can use other sources.
- April 20 - You may use class time to work on probability projects. I will set up breakout rooms on Zoom.
- April 22 - Group discussions on probability projects. I will set up breakout rooms on Zoom.
- April 24
- Yuming Li - The risk of avalanche in backcountry skiing, International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings
- Patrick Kawakami and Zane Monaghan - Putting Probabilities, TomFieldinggolf.net
- April 27
- Oliver Pearson and Chris Paludi - Baseball Hall of Fame Elections, FiveThirtyEight
- Andrew Stolarski, Joe Chatz, and Nick Vale - Probability and Baseball, CBS New York
- Aaron Lambert, Matt Pantalon, Ryan Dillon - Odds, betting, and probability in the Bears/Packers rivalry, Sports Illustrated
- April 29
- Cora Cicala and Hayley Beluch - Here are the best sports for a college scholarship, MarketWatch
- Liem Buckley and Garrett Culbertson - Would the NBA playoffs be better with best-of-three series, The Ringer
- Claire Murray and Kaitlyn Griffith - Injury risk analysis in women's artistic gymnastics, TEM Journal
- May 1
- Luke Thompson - March Madness 2020: What Could've Been, FiveThirtyEight
- James Mazer, Jamie Sussman, and Vishad Onta - NBA Draft Lottery Probabilities, American Journal of Undergraduate Research
- Alex Hoskins-Frame, Jack Anderson, and Ryan Page - Golden State Warriors Historic 2015-16 Season, numberfire.com
- May 4 - individual meetings about final project and overall class standing
- May 6 - individual meetings about final project
- May 8 - individual meetings about final project
- May 12 before 1:30 PM - Final Paper is due.
Homework Assignments
- HW #1 - due on Wednesday, January 22
- HW #2 - due on Wednesday, January 29
- Project Proposal - due on or before 9:00 pm on Monday, February 3 - Please send me a short e-mail message describing your question of interest, possible data sources, a preliminary plan of analysis, names of people in your group, and a preferred presentation date between February 5 and February 14.
- HW #3 - due on Wednesday, February 5
- HW #4 - due on Wednesday, February 26
- HW #5 - due on Friday, March 27
- Project Proposal - due on or before 9:00 pm on Monday, March 30 - Please send me a short e-mail message describing your modeling/prediction question of interest, possible data set (no manaual entry from a web page this time), names of people in your group, and a preferred presentation date between April 1 and April 10.
- HW #6 - due on Friday, April 3
- HW #7 - due on Friday, April 10
- HW #8 - due on Friday, April 17
- Project Proposal - due on or before 9:00 pm on Monday, April 20 - Find an article of interest to you and your partner(s) that deals with probability in sports. Please drop a pdf version of the article into our !Presentation3-Probability folder on Google Drive. In your last group presentation, you will summarize the probability methods used in the article and then use RStudio to solve some related probability quetions of interest to you. As usual, your presentation should be approximately 12 minutes long. Please send me an email message with the names of the members of your group, the primary focus of your presentation, and a proposed presentation date between April 22 and May 1.
Quiz and Exam Samples
- Samples and solutions are provided in P:\data\math\hartlaub\SportsStats
- THESE SAMPLES HAVE BEEN COPIED TO OUR GOOGLE DRIVE FOLDER
- I HAVE HAD SEVERAL REQUESTS FOR ADDITIONAL QUIZZES SO I WILL POST MY OLD QUIZZES AND SOLUTIONS FOR YOU TO WORK ON AT YOUR OWN PACE. (THIS IS THE CAFETERIA SYLE OF LEARNING THAT I MENTIOINED DURNG OUR ZOOM SESSIONS. YOU WORK AT YOUR PACE AND DO LOTS OF SELF REFLECTION. I WOULD BE HAPPY TO HELP YOU WORK WITH THESE QUIZZES DURING ZOOM OFFICE HOURS.)
Data Sources
Interesting Articles
Interesting Links